Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Jun 01 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3697 (S18E35, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced an impulsive X1.1/2b flare (R3/Strong) at 31/2203 UTC; the largest event of the period. Growth was observed in the intermediate spot area of Region 3697 and a delta configuration persisted in the leader spot area. The region also produced an M1.0 flare (R1/Minor) at 31/1120 UTC. C-class flare activity was observed from Regions 3691 (N25W18, Dkc/beta-delta), 3697, and 3698 (N22E24, Cri/beta). Region 3691 showed an overall decay trend and magnetic simplification throughout the period. New Region 3699 (N04W06, Cao/beta) was numbered and exhibited minor growth since emerging. Region 3698 continued to grow in size and total spot count. Other activity included instability along a filament centered near S20E10 at around 31/0800 UTC, but the filament did not lift off. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 03 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 03 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 03 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Total field ranged from 1-9 nT. Prolonged periods of southward Bz reaching -7 to -9 nT were observed between 31/0023-0514 UTC. Solar wind speed averaged near 350 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast

The solar wind environment is likely to continue to be mildly disturbed on 31 May. Flanking influences from the 29 May CME is likely to cause further enhancements late on 31 May and continuing through 01 Jun. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on 02-03 Jun.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming between 31/0300-0600 UTC following a prolonged period of southward Bz and elevated density.

Forecast

G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 01 Jun due to flanking effects from the 29 May CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 02-03 June.