Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2024 Apr 28 0030 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels as Region 3654 (S08W23, Esi/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M3.0 flare at 27/2140 UTC. The region also produced C-class activity. It remains the largest region on the disk and exhibited moderate development in the intermediate and trailer spots. Region 3648 (N18W85, Cao/beta) produced a C4.9/Sf at 27/1628 UTC as it approached the WNW limb. Region 3657 (S15W32, Bxo/beta) reemerged with a few rudimentary spots and new Region 3660 (N10E62, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. At about 27/1100 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery contained a faint, slow-moving CME off the SW limb. This CME signature is suspected to have originated in the vicinity of Region 3654 when some westward moving enhancements were detected at about 27/0900 UTC. Analysis and modeling suggested a possible Earth-directed component could affect Earth mid-to-late on 01 May. Further analysis is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Prévisions

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 28-30 Apr with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Prévisions

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 28-30 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 28-30 Apr.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The solar wind environment was enhanced due to possible CME influence early in the period, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 16 nT and the Bz component was varied between +/-10 nT. Solar wind speeds were steady from 300-350 km/s until 27/0230 UTC, when speed values slowly increased to a period high of around 550 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation through the period.

Prévisions

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 28-30 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity to Earth over the next few days.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period.

Prévisions

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 Apr, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 28 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.