Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2024 May 07 1230 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad solar

Resumen 24 hr

Solar activity remained at high levels. Region 3663 (N25W52, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited slight separation in its intermediate spots, showed little overall growth, and was responsible for the vast majority of the M class flares. The largest was an M5.1 at 07/0616 UTC. Region 3664 (S19W05, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) maintained its delta configuration, continued to grow and produced M-class activity. Region 3668 (S17E06, Dao/beta-gamma) displayed growth in overall areal extent as well as new intermediate and trailer spots. Despite its growth, this region was mostly inactive. New Region 3670 (N17E59, Hax/alpha) was numbered during the period, but was also inactive. The remaining spotted active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Predicción

Solar activity is expected to range from moderate to high levels over 07-09 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Predicción

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 07-09 May. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 07-09 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr

The solar wind environment was indicative of the continued effects of the 03 May CME arrival. Additionally, a positive polarity CH HSS likely connected with the Earth during the time of the CME passage. Total field strength continued to slowly decrease, reaching a peak of 12 nT around early in the period. The Bz component saw southward deflections to -12 nT before turning mostly north for the latter half of the period. Solar wind speeds slowly climbed over the period, reaching a peak over 565 km/s.

Predicción

Elevated solar wind conditions, associated a positive polarity CH HSS, are likely to prevail over 07-08 May. On 09 May, the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May, may cause enhancements in the solar wind environment before returning to nominal levels by the end of the period.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 03 May, and the likely onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Predicción

Active conditions are likely on 07 May as influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persists. Waning CH HSS influences by 08 May should bring quiet to unsettled levels briefly, before possibly ramping back up to periods of active conditions on 09 May with the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May.