Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 May 20 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels when Region 3685 (S13E29, Ehi/beta-gamma) produced an M1.9/1N at 19/1344 UTC, an M2.5/1B at 19/1756 UTC, and an M1.6/1n at 19/2159 UTC. Growth was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 3685 and the leader spots of Region 3683 (S24W58, Dai/beta). New Region 3687 (N15E01,Bxo/beta) was numbered. Modelling of a filament eruption CME mentioned in the 19/1230 UTC discussion suggested passage well south of the ecliptic.

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with isolated M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) probable and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) on 20-22 May.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit had returned to background levels. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.

Forecast

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons reaching S1 (Minor) levels on 20-22 May due to the flare potential of Region 3685. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels, with a chanced for high levels, through 21 May.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 19/1148 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/1417 UTC. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1254Z and was mostly southward from around 19/00 UTC to 19/19 UTC.

Forecast

Solar wind enhancements are then expected on 20 May from the CME that left the Sun on 17 May. CME influences are expected to slowly diminish on 21 May. Normal background solar wind conditions are expected for 22 May.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.

Forecast

On 20 May, unsettled to active levels are expected, with G1 (Minor) storming likely with glancing CME effects from the 17 May CME. Mid to late day on 21 May, active levels are expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels as CME effects gradually diminish. Mostly quiet levels are expected by 22 May.