3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 May 02 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 02-May 04 2024 is 4 (.33below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             May 02       May 03       May 04
00-03UT       2.67         3.67         3.33     
03-06UT       2.00         3.33         2.33     
06-09UT       2.67         3.00         3.00     
09-12UT       3.33         3.33         2.67     
12-15UT       3.00         3.00         2.67     
15-18UT       3.33         3.33         4.00     
18-21UT       4.00         3.33         4.33     
21-00UT       4.33         3.67         4.33     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024

              May 02  May 03  May 04
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale

A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will exist on 02 May given the relatively recent activity from AR 3654 and its current location.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 01 2024 1444 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 02-May 04 2024

              May 02        May 03        May 04
R1-R2           55%           40%           30%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale

R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity remain likely on 02 May given the flare histories of ARs 3654 and 3663. Probabilities decrease to a just a chance 03-04 May as AR 3654 rotates off the visible disk.