Diskussion av prognoserat rymdväder

Datum av rapporten: 2024 Apr 25 1230 UTC
Skapad av NOAA SWPC och bearbetad av SWL

Solaktivitet

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna

Solar activity was at moderate levels with four R1 (Minor) events observed. Region 3638 (S18, L=229) produced an M2.0 flare at 24/2259 UTC, the strongest flare of the period, before decaying to plage. Regions 3648 (N18W53, Dai/beta-gamma) and 3654 (S08E13, Eai/beta-gamma) grew in size, spot count, and complexity this period. Overall decay was noted within the active region cluster in the SW. New Region 3659 (S13E41, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Prognos

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels over 25-27 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong).

Energirika partiklar

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Prognos

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 25-27 Apr due to the flare potential and location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 25-27 Apr.

Solvind

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna

Solar wind conditions reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT and the Bz component was mostly northward through the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 375 km/s early in the period to end-of-period values near 325 km/s. The phi angle was variable.

Prognos

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 25-27 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Geospace

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Prognos

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 25-27 Apr due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for minor (G1) geomagnetic storm periods exists over 25-26 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.