Pogoda kosmiczna - Dyskusja
Odnotowany: 2018 Mar 24 0030 UTC
Przygotowane przez Departament do Spraw Komercjalizacji USA, NOAA, Centrum Prognozowania Pogody Kosmicznej (SWPC) i przetworzony przez SpaceWeatherLive.com
Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (24-26 Mar).
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
maximum flux of 1,090 pfu observed at 23/2105 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels all three days of the forecast period (24-26 Mar). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels all three days.
Solar wind parameters reflected weak influence from a negative polarity
CH HSS. Solar wind values gradually increased from initial values near
415 km/s to end-of-period values of around 490 km/s. A peak of 512 km/s
was recorded at 23/1550 UTC. Total field strength values reached a peak
of 9 nT while the Bz component varied between -4 nT to +5 nT. The phi
angle was variable but predominately oriented in a negative sector.
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced over the next
three days (24-26 Mar) due to the effects of a CIR in advance of a
recurrent, polar connected, negative polarity CH HSS.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to negative
polarity CH HSS influence.
Early to midday on day one (24 Mar), a CIR in advance of a recurrent,
polar connected, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause an
enhancement of the magnetic field. Field conditions are expected to be
at predominately unsettled to active levels, with periods of G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions, on days one and two (24-25 Mar). By day
three (26 Mar), field conditions are expected to be at predominately
quiet to active levels.