Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2024 Apr 24 0030 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar activity decreased slightly over the past 24 hours, with only three low-level M-class events observed. Were not out of the woods yet, however. Region 3854 (S08E31, Dai/Beta) produced two of the three M flares, an M3.6 at 23/0319 UTC and an M3.0 at 23/0821 UTC. Over the past day, the leader and trailer spots in this region continued to separate and flux continued to emerge. Region 3845 (S08W64, DKC/Beta-gamma) produced the final M-class event, an M2.9 at 23/1744 UTC. It was accompanied by a Type II radio burst beginning at 23/1747 UTC and ejecta to the west was observed in GOES SUVI 304 angstrom imagery. Coronagraph imagery of that event is not yet available. Also of note was the appearance of new, rapidly emerging flux between regions 3654 and 3657 in the southeast quadrant of the visible disk. This region is being monitored for potential numbering. Further analysis of the filament eruption that began at around 23/0330 UTC near S10W02 ,and was mentioned in this mornings discussion, revealed no discernable Earth-directed CME. However, multiple narrow, southward CMEs as well as a larger partial halo CME associated with the M2.9 from AR 3638 were observed. The latter is being analyzed at the time of this writing.

Prévisions

Although M-flare production decreased, solar activity is still expected to be at moderate to high levels over 24-26 Apr, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong).

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Prévisions

There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Apr due to the flare potential and location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed throughout the period. Wind speeds decreased from 400-450 km/s early in the day to between 350-400 km/s. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT and Bz varied +/-5 nT. The phi angle was negative.

Prévisions

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 24-26 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible CME activity.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period late.

Prévisions

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach quiet and unsettled levels on 24 Apr, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Unsettled and active levels are expected again on 25 Apr from possible CME activity and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. These conditions are anticipated to persist through 25 Apr. A chance for minor (G1) or greater geomagnetic storms persists with the eruptive activity noted above, although there are no obvious Earth-directed events discernible in the coronagraph imagery.