Affichage des archives de lundi, 14 février 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Feb 14 2205 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 045 publié à 2200Z le 14 Feb 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate Region 1158 (S21W14)
produce an M2/1N flare at 14/1745Z associated with a 150 sfu
Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1479 km/s).
Region 1158 also produced seven C-class events the largest being a
C9 at 14/1253. This region continued to grow throughout the period
and is currently magnetically classified as a Beta-gamma type
spotgroup with an area of 450 millionths.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for an M5 or greater x-ray event for days
one thru three (15-17 February).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A sudden impulse was
observed at 14/1600Z (12nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Solar wind data from the ACE satellite indicated a
shock arrival at 14/1456Z. Solar wind velocities increased to
approximately 410 km/s and total field increased to around 20 nT
following the shock. The source of todays activity is likely an
east limb event that occurred at 11/2146Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods on day one (15 February). There is a slight chance for
isolated minor storm periods on days two and three (16-17 February).
The increase is forecast due to the expected return of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream and the arrival of a CME from
yesterdays M6 event.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Feb au 17 Feb
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 Feb 113 Prévisionnel 15 Feb-17 Feb 100/100/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 Feb 084
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 Feb 001/002 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Feb au 17 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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