Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 19/2234Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/0238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1049 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (22 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Feb 081
  Predicted    21 Feb-23 Feb 081/081/081
  90 Day Mean        20 Feb 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Feb  010/011
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  010/010-012/016-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm 05%15%25%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 30%30%25%
Major-severe storm 30%40%60%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 5%
X-class solar flare 1%

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Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2016/11/29M1.2
Last geomagnetic storm:2017/02/01Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017:11
Last spotless day:2017/02/08

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