Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep,
24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 21/2217Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/1615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/1655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 36942 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
|Class M ||15%||15%||15%|
|Class X ||01%||01%||01%|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 078
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 085/090/090
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 007/008-009/012-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
|A. Middle Latitudes|
|Minor storm ||05%||10%||15%|
|Major-severe storm ||01%||01%||01%|
|B. High Latitudes|
|Minor storm ||25%||25%||25%|
|Major-severe storm ||25%||40%||50%|