Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 21/2217Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1655Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36942 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 078
  Predicted    23 Sep-25 Sep 085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  007/008-009/012-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%30%
Minor storm 05%10%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%25%25%
Major-severe storm 25%40%50%
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 25%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 15%
X-class solar flare 1%
B3.0
Moon phase
Waxing Crescent

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Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/09/09M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm:2017/09/18Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017:56
Last spotless day:2017/08/01

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