Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2018 Feb 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (25-27 Feb).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 2,030 pfu observed at 24/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period (25-27 Feb).

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds declined from near 520 km/s to period ending values approaching 425 km/s. Total field reached a maximum value of 7 nT while the Bz component dropped to a period low of -6 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominantly negative orientation.
Forecast
The solar wind environment is likely to remain enhanced over the next three days (25-27 Feb) due to influence from multiple negative polarity CH HSSs in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk. An additional enhancement is expected late on day one (25 Feb) as a polar-connected, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to continued effects from negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb), unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on day two (26 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Feb) due to influence from a polar-connected, negative polarity CH HSS.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 50%
Middle latitude 15% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waxing Gibbous

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Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2018/02/23Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2018:24
Current stretch spotless days:8

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