Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Feb 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low with only B-class activity observed. Slight growth was observed in Region 2640 (N11E24, Bxo/beta) while Region 2639 (S08W61, Bxo/beta) appeared to be in decay. Region 2638 (N18W16, Hsx/alpha) was relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (27 Feb-01 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels with a peak flux of 956 pfu observed at 26/1755 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (27 Feb-01 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels during the period. Solar wind speed continued to decrease from approximately 480 km/s to near 400 km/s while the total field was in the 2-4 nT range. The Bz component was mostly positive ranging from -2 nT to +3 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.
Forecast
Background solar wind parameters are expected on day one and through most of day two (27-28 Feb) with the under a nominal solar wind regime. By late on day two, total interplanetary field strength and density are likely to begin to increase as a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS rotates into geoeffective position. By day three (01 Mar), CIR effects are expected to give way to CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed in the 600-700 km/s range is likely with this HSS based on STEREO A data.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Forecast
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day one and through most of day two (27-28 Feb) under nominal solar wind conditions. By late on day two, unsettled to active conditions are likely as a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on day three (01 Mar) due to CIR/CH HSS effects.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 10%
Middle latitude 1% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%

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