Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Sep 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 2680 (N07W93, Hsx/alpha) and 2681 (S13E46, Hsx/alpha) both continued to be quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to increase to low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (23-25 Sep) with the return of old Region 2673 (S09, L=119).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a maximum flux of 36,942 pfu at 22/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels on day one (23 Sep). A decrease to moderate levels is likely on day two (24 Sep) with the arrival of a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Another increase to high levels is expected by day three (25 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 450 km/s to near 370 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component was between +3 nT and -5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive (away) sector with some variability beginning after 22/1550 UTC.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on day one (23 Sep). On days two and three (24-25 Sep), parameters are expected to become enhanced from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Sep) under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to active levels are expected on days two and three (24-25 Sep) with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 25%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 15%
X-class solar flare 1%
B3.0
Moon phase
Waxing Crescent

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