Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Mar 27 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was low. Region 2644 (N12E24, Dao/beta-gamma) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C3 at 27/1112 UTC. Consolidation was observed in the leader spots alongside penumbral growth in both the leader and trailer spots. Alongside the growth, a small area of mixed polarity spots near the trailer spot resulted in the gamma classification of the region. Emerging flux was observed in both the NW and SW quadrants. Region numbers will be assigned if the newly developing spots persist. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the forecast period (27-29 Mar).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 8,330 pfu observed at 26/1710 UTC. A pronounced decreased in flux was observed after 27/0000 UTC in response to increased geomagnetic activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on day one (27 Mar) with normal to moderate levels likely on day two (28 Mar) due to a period of elevated geomagnetic field activity. Moderate to high flux levels are expected on day three (29 Mar) following an enhanced solar wind environment. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (27-29 Mar).

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a SSBC followed by an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength and density values began increasing after 26/1900 UTC, with a peak of 19 nT observed at 27/0752 UTC. The Bz component transitions from a mostly northward orientation to a mostly southward orientation after around 27/0100 UTC. Solar wind speeds solar increased from a steady 350-400 km/s to an enhanced state at around 550 km/s with pronounced increases observed after 27/0400 UTC. The phi angle suggested the passage of a SSBC with a transition from the positive sector to the negative sector between 26/2100-2200 UTC.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next three days (27-29 Mar) due to the influence of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Recurrence and STEREO-A data suggest solar wind speeds in the 650-700 km/s range are likely during the passage of this feature.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field transitioned from a quiet state to G2 (Moderate) storm conditions due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms levels on day one (27 Mar). G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are again likely on days two and three (28-29 Mar) as Earths near-space environment is expected to be disturbed by the strongest portion of the negative polarity CH HSS.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm
Observed Kp: 6-
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (676.1 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-56nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.18

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 30%
Middle latitude 25% 10%
Predicted Kp max 5
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
C3.2 C1.6 B4.1 C5.1
Moon phase
New Moon

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