Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Jul 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low. There were no numbered sunspots on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one through three (22-24 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak of 1,920 pfu observed at 22/1200 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the reporting period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels over the next three days (22-24 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 700 km/s, achieved a period maximum of 770 km/s, then decreased to period ending values of approximately 525 km/s. Total field measurements ranged between 4 and 8 nT while the Bz component dropped as low as -7 nT. The phi angle was in a positive orientation.
Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease over days one and two (22-23 Jul), returning to nominal conditions by day three (24 Jul).


24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated minor storm levels (G1-Minor) due to continued positive polarity CH HSS effects.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the remainder of day one (22 Jul) into day two (23 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist. By day three (24 Jul), mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected as CH effects gradually taper.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (589.6 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 40%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waning Crescent


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Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2017/07/14M2.4
Last geomagnetic storm:2017/07/17Kp6 (G2)
Number of spotless days in 2017:48
Current stretch spotless days:5

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