Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Apr 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was very low. There were three numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk. Region 2652 (N13W13, Axx/alpha) and Region 2653 (S11E21, Hax/alpha) were mostly stable and inactive. Region 2651 (N11W23, Hsx/alpha) exhibited signs of slight decay, but did have a B7 flare originate from nearby. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (26-28 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 52,302 pfu observed at 25/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high to very high levels over the next three days (26-28 Apr) due to CH HSS effects. No solar radiation storms are expected during the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
The solar wind environment was enhanced due to the waning effects of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds continued a downward trend throughout the period, beginning at around 650 km/s, and ending around 510 km/s. Total field strength ranged between 3 and 5 nT, while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative sector.
Forecast
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced, but waning over the next three days (26-28 Apr) due to the influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels during the first synoptic period of the day, due to the effects of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Forecast
CH HSS influences will gradually subside over the next three days. Isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on day one (26 Apr). Otherwise, quiet to active conditions are anticipated. Mainly quiet to unsettled periods are expected on day two (27 Apr) with the possibility of isolated active periods. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day three (28 Apr) as the bulk of the CH HSS moves into an increasingly less geoeffective position.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (586.3 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 60%
Middle latitude 25% 1%
Predicted Kp max 5
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
New Moon

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Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
Last M-flare:2017/04/03M5.8
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Current stretch spotless days:2

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