Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 May 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2659 (N13W70, Dao/beta) produced a C3/Sf flare at 28/1928 UTC and a C1/Sf at 28/2313 UTC, along with numerous B-class flares this period, but continued to show signs of minor decay and consolidation. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the forecast period (29-31 May). There is a chance for additional isolated C-class flare activity on days one and two (29-30 May) as Region 2659 approaches the west limb.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels this period in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity associated with the arrival of the 23 May CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (29-31 May) in response to the enhanced near-Earth solar wind environment associated with the passage of the 23 May CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (29-31 May).

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters reflected to continued, but weakening influence of the 23 May CME. Solar wind speed values slowly decreased throughout the period from around 400 km/s to end-of-period values near 350 km/s. Total field strength values decreased from a peak of 21 nT early in the period to around 12 nT late in the day. Bz rotated from a peak of -20 nT early in the period to +10 nT by the end of the period. Solar wind density hovered at around 10 particle/cubic cm this period.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to be elevated, but continue a slow decrease on day one (29 May) as CME effects wane. Background solar wind parameters are expected on days two and three (30-31 May) with the return to a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm levels through mid-period with quiet to active conditions observed through the latter half of the period, all due to the weakening influence of the 23 May CME.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through midday on day one (29 May) due to continued CME effects. Generally quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of day one through day three (29-31 May) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.3nT), the direction is North (5.97nT).

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 15%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 5%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waxing Crescent

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