Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2017 Jan 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar Activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was at very low levels. Both Region 2625 (N01E12, Hsx/alpha) and Region 2626 (N08E23, Hax/alpha) remained stable and mostly inactive during the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, all three days (17-19 Jan).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 3,090 pfu observed at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on day one (17 Jan), decreasing to normal to moderate levels on days two and three (18-19 Jan) due to electron redistribution as a result of CIR and CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, continued to reflect a nominal solar environment. Total field strength remained steady near 4 nT, while the Bz component ranged from -3 nT to +5 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 295 km/s and 335 km/s, and phi angle was predominantly positive.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels for the majority of day one (17 Jan). Late on 17 Jan, an enhancement in wind parameters is likely due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR in advance of a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. By day two (18 Jan), a further enhancement to near 650 km/s (speeds based on STEREO PLASTIC data) is likely due to CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to remain enhanced through day three (19 Jan).

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet before increasing to quiet to unsettled levels late on day one (17 Jan) with the expected arrival of a CIR in advance of a CH HSS. Active to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) are likely on day two (18 Jan) due to continued CIR effects and the onset of a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue into day three (19 Jan), with G1-Minor storms likely early in the day as CH HSS effects persist.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

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Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 20%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%

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