3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2018 Feb 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 25-Feb 27 2018 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Feb 25     Feb 26     Feb 27
00-03UT        3          4          3     
03-06UT        2          5 (G1)     3     
06-09UT        2          4          2     
09-12UT        2          4          2     
12-15UT        3          3          2     
15-18UT        3          3          1     
18-21UT        4          3          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 26 Feb due to anticipated influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2018

              Feb 25  Feb 26  Feb 27
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2018

              Feb 25        Feb 26        Feb 27
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 50%
Middle latitude 15% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waxing Gibbous

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Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2018/02/23Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2018:24
Current stretch spotless days:8

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