3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 May 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA scale G3).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 29-May 31 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            May 29     May 30     May 31
00-03UT        4          2          1     
03-06UT        4          1          2     
06-09UT        3          1          2     
09-12UT        3          1          1     
12-15UT        2          2          1     
15-18UT        1          1          1     
18-21UT        1          2          1     
21-00UT        2          1          2     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day one (29 May) due to continuing effects from the 23 May CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 29-May 31 2017

              May 29  May 30  May 31
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 29-May 31 2017

              May 29        May 30        May 31
R1-R2            5%            5%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.39nT), the direction is North (4.71nT).

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 20% 15%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 5%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waxing Crescent

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