3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Feb 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Feb 21     Feb 22     Feb 23
00-03UT        3          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          3          4     
06-09UT        2          2          3     
09-12UT        2          2          3     
12-15UT        2          3          3     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        3          4          3     
21-00UT        3          4          4     

Rationale
An isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming is likely on day three (23 Feb), under the enhanced conditions of the CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017

              Feb 21  Feb 22  Feb 23
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017

              Feb 21        Feb 22        Feb 23
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 30% 30%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 2
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 5%
X-class solar flare 1%

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