3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Apr 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 24-Apr 26 2017 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Apr 24     Apr 25     Apr 26
00-03UT        4          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        4          4          4     
06-09UT        4          4          4     
09-12UT        4          3          3     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     3          3     
15-18UT        4          3          3     
18-21UT        4          3          3     
21-00UT        4          4          4     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on Apr 24 and likely on Apr 25-26 due to the continued influence of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2017

              Apr 24  Apr 25  Apr 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 24-Apr 26 2017

              Apr 24        Apr 25        Apr 26
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
Active geomagnetic conditions expected
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (687.7 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 65%
Middle latitude 25% 1%
Predicted Kp max 5
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waning Crescent

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