3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Apr 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 is 4 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Apr 27       Apr 28       Apr 29
00-03UT       3.67         3.67         2.67     
03-06UT       3.00         3.33         2.00     
06-09UT       3.00         3.33         2.33     
09-12UT       4.00         3.00         2.67     
12-15UT       3.00         3.00         2.33     
15-18UT       3.00         3.33         2.33     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         2.33     
21-00UT       3.67         2.00         2.33     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

              Apr 27  Apr 28  Apr 29
S1 or greater   15%      5%      1%

Rationale

There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms on 27 Apr due to the location and flare potential of multiple active regions.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024

              Apr 27        Apr 28        Apr 29
R1-R2           75%           55%           35%
R3 or greater   15%            5%            5%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, on 27 Apr. R1-R2 events are likely on 28 Apr and there is a chance for R1-R2 events on 29 Apr.