3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Jul 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 22-Jul 24 2017 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Jul 22     Jul 23     Jul 24
00-03UT        3          4          3     
03-06UT        2          4          3     
06-09UT        4          3          2     
09-12UT        5 (G1)     2          1     
12-15UT        5 (G1)     2          1     
15-18UT        2          2          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        3          3          2     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected early to midday on day one (22 Jul) due to continued positive polarity CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2017

              Jul 22  Jul 23  Jul 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2017

              Jul 22        Jul 23        Jul 24
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (589.6 km/sec.)

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 40%
Middle latitude 10% 1%
Predicted Kp max 4
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%
Moon phase
Waning Crescent

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Last X-flare:2015/05/05X2.7
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Current stretch spotless days:5

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