3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Sep 23 0031 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 23-Sep 25 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Sep 23     Sep 24     Sep 25
00-03UT        2          3          4     
03-06UT        2          2          4     
06-09UT        2          1          3     
09-12UT        1          1          3     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        2          4          2     
18-21UT        2          3          2     
21-00UT        3          4          3     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Quiet to active levels are expected on days two and three (24-25 Sep) with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 23-Sep 25 2017

              Sep 23  Sep 24  Sep 25
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 23-Sep 25 2017

              Sep 23        Sep 24        Sep 25
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. Solar activity is expected to increase to low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (23-25 Sep) with the return of old Region 2673 (S09, L=119).
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 25%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 15%
X-class solar flare 1%
B3.0
Moon phase
Waxing Crescent

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/09/09M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm:2017/09/18Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2017:56
Last spotless day:2017/08/01

This day in history*

Solar flares
11998M7.1
22014M2.3
32011M1.9
42011M1.6
52011M1.6
ApG
1200141G2
2199928G2
3199627G1
4200716
5200315
*since 1994