3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2017 Jan 17 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 17-Jan 19 2017 is 5 (NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

            Jan 17     Jan 18     Jan 19
00-03UT        1          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        1          3          4     
06-09UT        0          3          3     
09-12UT        1          3          3     
12-15UT        1          3          3     
15-18UT        2          4          3     
18-21UT        3          5 (G1)     4     
21-00UT        3          5 (G1)     4     

Rationale
(G1-Minor) storm levels are likely on day two (18 Jan) due to continued CIR effects and the onset of a polar-connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Early on day three (19 Jan), G1-Minor storms are likely as CH HSS effects persist.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2017

              Jan 17  Jan 18  Jan 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2017

              Jan 17        Jan 18        Jan 19
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale
No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

Latest news

Today's space weather

Auroral activity
Minor Severe
High latitude 25% 20%
Middle latitude 5% 1%
Predicted Kp max 3
Solar activity
M-class solar flare 1%
X-class solar flare 1%

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