3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Mar 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024 is 4 (.67NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Mar 19       Mar 20       Mar 21
00-03UT       3.33         1.67         3.00     
03-06UT       2.67         2.00         4.00     
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         4.67 (G1)
09-12UT       1.67         3.00         3.00     
12-15UT       0.67         3.67         4.00     
15-18UT       0.67         3.67         3.00     
18-21UT       1.67         4.00         3.00     
21-00UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    2.00     

Rationale
G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 20-21 Mar due to the arrival of CMEs from 17 Mar.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024

              Mar 19  Mar 20  Mar 21
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale
No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 18 2024 1919 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2024

              Mar 19        Mar 20        Mar 21
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale
There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 19-21 Mar.

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/02/22X6.3
Last M-flare2024/03/19M1.4
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/03Kp6- (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12003M5.34
22003M2.33
32000M2.29
42003M2.23
52003M2
ApG
1200137G3
2200638G2
3200219G1
4201526G1
5200511G1
*since 1994

Social networks