Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 January 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 28/2201Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/0249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 077 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 076/075/075 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 009/010-017/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 65% | 50% |
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