Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 January 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 18/1510Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 18/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 18/0310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 079
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  015/020-013/018-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%30%30%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%40%40%

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