Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb,
19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 458 km/s at 17/1847Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 17/0142Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 17/0440Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 119 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 05% | 05% |
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