Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1432 (N14E03)
produced an M2/1N event at 14/1521Z associated with a faint CME as
visible on LASCO C2 (plane-of-sky velocity 392 km/s) with a narrow
northeast trajectory. As of current, this CME is not expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare until
Region 1429 (N19W77) rotates behind the limb. On days 2 and 3
(16-17 March) activity is expected to decrease to low levels with a
chance for moderate flaring from Region 1432.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels reaching
active levels at high latitudes. Correction to yesterdays summary,
the greater than 100 MeV event began at 13/1810Z, reached a peak
value of 1 PFU at 13/1905Z, and ended at 13/2255Z. The 10 MeV
proton event greater than 100 PFU (S2-Moderate) event began at
13/1855Z, reached a peak value of 469 PFU at 13/2045Z, and dropped
below 100 PFU into S1-Minor threshold at 14/0955Z. The proton event
is currently around 33 PFU and gradually decreasing. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 March. Activity is expected
to increase to active levels on 16 March due to effects from the 13
March transient and a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Activity is expected to return to mostly unsettled levels on 17
March as effects from these two influences begin to wane slightly.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue to
decrease over the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 90% | 40% | 70% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 119 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 009/015-015/020-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 35% | 20% |
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