Viewing archive of Monday, 14 February 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 14 2205 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate Region 1158 (S21W14) produce an M2/1N flare at 14/1745Z associated with a 150 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1479 km/s). Region 1158 also produced seven C-class events the largest being a C9 at 14/1253. This region continued to grow throughout the period and is currently magnetically classified as a Beta-gamma type spotgroup with an area of 450 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for an M5 or greater x-ray event for days one thru three (15-17 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A sudden impulse was observed at 14/1600Z (12nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Solar wind data from the ACE satellite indicated a shock arrival at 14/1456Z. Solar wind velocities increased to approximately 410 km/s and total field increased to around 20 nT following the shock. The source of todays activity is likely an east limb event that occurred at 11/2146Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on day one (15 February). There is a slight chance for isolated minor storm periods on days two and three (16-17 February). The increase is forecast due to the expected return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and the arrival of a CME from yesterdays M6 event.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 113
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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