Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S20W03)
produced an M6/1N flare at 13/1738Z associated with a 130 sfu
Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1119 km/s).
Region 1158 grew in area and developed a complex E-type sunspot
group with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1157
(N18W30) and Region 1159 (N19W01) both grew slightly but remain
magnetically simple while Region 1160 (N16E74) decayed to spotless
plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for a major x-ray event for days one thru
three (14-16 February). Region 1158 continued growth and recent
major flare make this region the most likely source for a major
event. There is a slight chance for C-class activity from Region
1157 and Region 1159.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind data from the ACE
satellite indicate a drop in solar wind velocity to approximately
310 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (14 February). Quiet
to unsettled with a chance for active conditions are expected on
days two and three (15-16 February), due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 107 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/005-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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