Viewing archive of Friday, 14 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (15 March) in response to a
slackening of the solar wind indicated by the STEREO Behind
spacecraft. Quiet to unsettled levels return on days 2 and 3 (16-17
March) as the solar wind speeds approach 600 km/s.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 070 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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