Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 February 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Feb 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There are no spotted
regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with a single
active period due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed is currently 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated
periods of minor storming.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 073 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/015-006/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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