Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 January 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 16 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 938
(N02E22) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest
was a C4/1n event occurring at 16/0242Z and a C1 event occurring
later in the period at 16/1611Z. This region continues to show
steady decay in sunspot area and exhibits a magnetic beta
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 938 continues to exhibit the
potential for producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions are due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels with occasional periods of active
conditions on 17 and 18 January due to the high speed stream.
Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 19
January as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 079 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 014/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 012/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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