Viewing archive of Monday, 20 February 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Feb 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. No significant
activity was noted again today. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
enhancement of the solar wind speed occurred near 20/1000Z (400
km/sec to 550/ km/sec) due to a geoeffective coronal hole. A brief
period of major storm levels occurred at higher latitudes between
20/1500 and 1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on 21 and 22 February, due
to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected on 23 February as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 076 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 010/015-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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