Viewing archive of Monday, 14 March 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 14 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
a C1 x-ray event at 0708 UTC from Region 741 (N12W68). Region 742
(S05W24) is currently the largest group on the disk (320 millionths)
but is no longer growing and only managed to produce a few low-level
B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region
742 or 741.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
minor storm period at mid-latitude from 0000-0300 UTC, and a minor
storm period based on the estimated planetary K index from 1200-1500
UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels at the
beginning of the period, but dropped below 1000 PFU after 13/2305
UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (15-17
March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 112 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 020/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 010/012-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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