Viewing archive of Friday, 25 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods due to the
effects of a geoeffective high speed stream. Solar wind speed at
ACE has increased from approximately 450 km/s to 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 26 February. On 27 and 28
February, expect unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 078 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 010/015-012/020-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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