Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 13 2350 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 013 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 718 (S07E07) produced
several C-class flares; the largest was a C4.2/Sf flare at 13/1712.
Region 720 (N13E24) has shown significant growth in area and sunspot
number, however, only low level B-class activity has been associated
with the region thus far. This region is now 1080 millionths with a
beta delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events.
Energetic activity is possible from Region 720 due to its rapid
development.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions were
due to the persistence of a high speed stream. The solar wind speed
at ACE has decreased from approximately 720 km/s to 650 km/s during
the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 116 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 018/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 008/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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