Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 464 (N04E36) and
459 (S11W85) have been the most active, but have not produced any
significant flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 464 continues to show an increase in complexity and size, but
currently has only a low to fair chance of generating any
significant flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. A coronal
hole induced high speed stream continues to be geoeffective, causing
minor disruptions in the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to active. The coronal hole which has
induced the current high speed stream will continue to be
geoeffective for at least the next two days, with a chance for
isolated active to minor storm levels at high latitudes for the next
three days.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 125 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 015/020-015/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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