Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class events
occurred during the day. Region 290 (N17E18) grew in both white
light and H-alpha as it produced occasional subflares. Little else
of significance occurred.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The solar wind
is currently hovering near 700 km/s, emanating from a coronal hole
in the western hemisphere.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next 24 hours.
Conditions should calm to strictly unsettled levels by the end of
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 118 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 015/020-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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