Viewing archive of Friday, 14 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels due to an
impulsive M1.2/Sf flare that occurred at 14/0918Z from Region 284
(N12W95) which was spotless upon exiting the disk. Several lesser
C-class flares also occurred from this region throughout the period.
Region 282 (N10W58) has shown some growth in white-light spot
coverage and magnetic complexity during the interval, although it
produced only minor flare activity. Regions 276 (S14W90) and 280
(S04W81) were responsible for the remainder of the minor flare
activity seen today. New Region 287 (N12W50) was newly numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Early in the
period the solar wind speed began a gradual increase to a current
500 km/s rise, this, along with frequent periods of southward Bz
allowed for the active conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor
storm conditions are possible, especially at high latitudes,
beginning on day one due to a large recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 131 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 012/015-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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