Viewing archive of Monday, 25 February 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to an M1 flare which
occurred at 25/0257 UTC. No flare reports were received but SOHO
images suggest that Region 9830 (S18W79) was the source. This region
also produced several C-class subflares throughout the past day. It
remains the largest sunspot group on the disk but is rapidly
decaying. Regions 9842 (S19W36) and 9846 (S04W53) are growing.
Region 9846 also produced several C-class subflares. New Regions
9848 (S20E33) and 9849 (N23E69) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9830 appears capable of an additional M-class
flare before it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 211 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 215/220/220 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 007/005-007/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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