Viewing archive of Monday, 14 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 X-RAY FLARE, WITH
NO ASSOCIATED OPTICAL, OCCURRED AT 13/2334Z. ONE NEW REGION, 8874
(S08E54), WAS ASSIGNED, MAKING A TOTAL OF 11 SPOTTED REGIONS NOW
VISIBLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A
TRANSIENT, WITH ENHANCED MAGNETIC FIELDS, PASSED ACE AROUND 0700Z.
THESE STRONG FIELDS, COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY FASTER THAN USUAL
SOLAR WIND (700 KM/S), SET OFF INTERVALS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING
AT ALL LATITUDES. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS SINCE DROPPED, NOW JUST
LESS THAN 600 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EPISODES OF
ACTIVE OR MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIMES. THIS CALMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 FEB to 17 FEB
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 FEB 159 Predicted 15 FEB-17 FEB 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 14 FEB 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB 013/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB 025/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 FEB to 17 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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