Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 January 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JAN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8440 (N19E56)
PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE INTERVAL. THE FLARES WERE AN
M3/SN AT 1020Z, AND AN M1/SN AT 1903Z. BOTH EVENTS WERE IMPULSIVE
WITH LITTLE RESPONSE ACROSS THE RADIO SPECTRUM. REGION 8440 ALSO
GENERATED A C6/1N AT 0100Z. REGION 8439 (S24E53), THE LARGEST GROUP
ON THE DISK, HAD A FEW SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ELSEWHERE, NEW
REGION 8441 (N18E28) WAS BORN ON THE DISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK
AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AT
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED CONDITIONS VARYING FROM QUIET
TO MAJOR STORM. THIS DISTURBANCE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
CORONAL MASS EJECTION, IS NOW WEAKENING.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED BRIEF SUBSTORMS MAY BRING ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIMES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JAN to 17 JAN
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 JAN 137 Predicted 15 JAN-17 JAN 150/160/170 90 Day Mean 14 JAN 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JAN 019/028 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JAN 020/026 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JAN-17 JAN 010/012-010/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JAN to 17 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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