Vorhersage Details
Ausgestellt: 2024 Apr 20 0030 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center und verarbeitet SpaceWeatherLive.com
Sonnenaktivität
24h Zusammenfassung
Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 3647 (S13W00,
Dac/beta-delta) produced two M-flares (R1/Minor), the largest of which
was an M2.1 flare at 19/0453 UTC. Region 3647 began to show signs of
separation of the shared penumbra between its principle spots. Region
3645 (S09W04, Dai/beta) underwent slight decay in its intermediate spot
area and consolidation of the leader and trailing spots. Region 3639
(N29W02, Ekc/beta-gamma) underwent some slight area growth. New Regions
3649 (N16W24, Bxi/beta), 3650 (S11E21, Cro/beta) and 3651 (N13E25,
Bxo/beta) were numbered, but were otherwise unremarkable.
Other activity included a large prominence eruption on the SE limb
beginning at around 19/0400 UTC, however, the associated CME is not
Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.
Vorhersage
Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels on 19-21 Apr.
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are expected, with a slight chance
for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential of several
active regions on the visible disk.
Energiereiche Teilchen
24h Zusammenfassung
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
Vorhersage
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 20-22 Apr. There is a slight chance for the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over
20-22 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the
visible disk.
Sonnenwind
24h Zusammenfassung
Solar wind conditions became enhanced beginning at 19/0413 UTC due to
CME activity. Following CME arrival, total field strength reached 18 nT
and the Bz component was sustained southward after 19/0410 UTC with a
peak of -17 nT observed. Solar wind speeds reached up to ~549 km/s at
19/2233 UTC.
Vorhersage
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 20-22 Apr
due to CME activity (on 20 and 21 Apr) and negative polarity CH HSS
influences (on 20-22 Apr).
Geospace
24h Zusammenfassung
The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels this
period in response to CME activity.
Vorhersage
Periods of unsettled to active levels are expected on 20-21 Apr due to
continued CME activity, coupled with the onset of negative polarity CH
HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from 16-18
Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 Apr due to
negative polarity CH HSS influence.